¹Ûµã

ºËÐĹ۵㣺¹úÇì¼ÙÆÚ£¬¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·Êг¡ÆÕµø¡£¹ú¼ÊÆÚ»õÊг¡²¨¶¯³ÉΪÓÕ·¢½Úºó¿ªÅ̺ó¹úÄÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õ¼Û¸ñ²¨¶¯µÄÖ÷ÒªÒòËØ¡£Æäʵº£Íâ¹ÉÊкÍÉÌÆ·Êг¡Êܴ죬Ö÷ÒªÔ­Òò±ãÊÇÊг¡Öð½¥ÏàÐŲ¢ÈÏÇåÁËÃÀÁª´¢Ò»Ö±Ç¿µ÷µÄ“¸ßÀûÂÊ״̬»ò½«³ÖÐø½Ï³¤Ê±¼ä”µÄº¬Òå¡£Õâ¶Îʱ¼ä£¬ÃÀÔªÖ¸ÊýºÍÊ®ÄêÆÚÃÀÕ®ÊÕÒæÂʲ»¶ÏÍ»ÆÆÇ°¸ß£¬¶Ô¹ÉƱºÍÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñÐγɴòѹ¡£¹úÄÚ°üÀ¨ÉÌÆ·ÔÚÄڵķçÏÕ×ʲú¿ÖÄÑÒÔ¶ÀÉÆÆäÉí¡£

´óÁ¿ÊµÖ¤Ñо¿±íÃ÷£¬¹ú¼ÊÆÚ»õÊг¡¶Ô¹úÄÚÆÚ»õÊг¡È·Êµ´æÔڽϴóµÄÓ°Ï죬µ«ÊǹúÄÚ´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õÊг¡¶Ô¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õÊг¡µÄÓ°Ïì½ÏС£¬ÕâÖÖÏÖÏó±»³Æ֮Ϊ——¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õÊг¡¶Ô¹úÄÚ´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õºÍÏÖ»õÊг¡¾ù´æÔÚµ¥ÏòÒç³öЧӦ¡£

´Ó2000ÄêÖÁ2021Ä꣬ÂÝÎƸÖÊÕÒæÂÊÓë¹ú¼ÊÔ­ÓÍÊÕÒæÂÊÖ®¼äµÄÏà¹ØϵÊýһֱά³ÖÔÚÒ»¸öÎȶ¨µÄÇø¼ä£¬¶øÇÒµ±ÖØ´ó¼Û¸ñʼþ·¢Éúʱ£¬Á½ÕßÏà¹ØϵÊý´ïµ½ÁËÒ»¸ö·åÖµ¡£Òò´Ë£¬ÎÒÃÇÈÏΪԭÓͼ۸ñÉÏÕǸø¸Ö¼Û´øÀ´ÁËÓÐÁ¦Ö§³Å£¬µ«¹úÇì¼ÙÆÚÆÚ¼äÔ­Óͼ۸ñµÄ±©µøÈÃÀû¶à¸Ö¼ÛµÄÒòËØÔÝʱÏûʧ¡£Ïà·´£¬¹úÇìÆÚ¼ä¹ú¼ÊÔ­Óͼ۸ñµÄϵø£¬»òµ¼Ö¹úÄÚ´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õÊг¡Ò²Ïµø£¬Àû¿Õ¸Ö¼ÛµÄÒòËØÖèÔö¡£Í¬Ê±£¬Òª½÷·ÀÓÉÓÚÍ»·¢²»Îȶ¨Ê¼þ³öÏÖ£¬µ¼ÖÂÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñ±©µø¡£

Ç°ÆÚÉÌÆ·¹²Õñ×ßÇ¿µÄÏÖÏóÐèÒª¼ÌÐø±»¹Ø×¢¡£´Ó³¤ÆÚµÄÀúÊ·Êý¾ÝÀ´¿´£¬Çý¶¯Ô­ÓÍÓëÆäËû°å¿éµÄÉÌÆ·¹²Õñ£¬80%µÄÔ­Òò¿ÉÒÔ¹é½áΪÐèÇó£¨Ô¤ÆÚ£©Çý¶¯£¬¹©¸øÒòËØÊÇ´ÎÒªµÄ¡£½üÆÚɳÌØÒòÕþÖÎÔ­Òò¶ø¼Æ»®Ôö²ú£¬¿ÉÄÜȷʵÊǵ¼ÖÂÔ­Óͼ۸ñϵøµÄÖØÒªÔ­Òò¡£¶øÃÀÁª´¢Á÷¶¯ÐÔÒòËزÅÊÇÒýÆð±¾´ÎÔ­Ó͵ÈÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñÖèµøµÄÖ÷Òò£¬Õâ¿É¹éΪÐèÇó²àÒòËØ¡£¿ÉÊÇ£¬ÃÀÁª´¢¼ÓÏ¢Ô¤ÆÚ×ÜÓе­»¯µÄʱºò£¬Êг¡ÓֻύÒ×ʲôÄØ£¿ÎÒÃÇÐèÒª¹Ø×¢ÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñ¹²Õñ×ßÇ¿ÊÇ·ñÒѾ­ÍêÈ«½áÊø£¬ÌرðÊÇÔ­Óͼ۸ñÊÇ·ñ»áÔÚ½üÆÚÖ¹µø¡£ÈôÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñ¹²Õñ×ßÇ¿±»´ò¶ÏÖ»ÊÇÔÝʱµÄ£¬½áºÏÀúÊ·¾­Ñé——ÔÚ´óÀàÉÌÆ·ÖУ¬ºÚÉ«½ðÊô¼Û¸ñºÍÄÜÔ´¼Û¸ñÏà¹ØÐÔ½ÏÇ¿£¬¼´Ê¹“Íú¼¾”±»Ö¤Î±£¬ºÚɫϵ¼Û¸ñÊÜÆäËû°å¿é¹²ÕñÓ°Ï죬Ԥ¼Æµø·ùÒ²½«ÓÐÏÞ¡£

¹úÇì¼ÙÆÚ£¬¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·Êг¡ÆÕµø¡£¹ú¼ÊÆÚ»õÊг¡²¨¶¯³ÉΪÓÕ·¢½Úºó¿ªÅ̺ó¹úÄÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õ¼Û¸ñ²¨¶¯µÄÖ÷ÒªÒòËØ¡£ÓÉÓÚÃÀÁª´¢¼ÓϢδ½áÊø£¬¸ßÀûÂÊ»·¾³³ÖÐøά³ÖµÈÔ­Òò£¬¹ú¼ÊÔ­Óͺͻƽð¼Û¸ñ³öÏÖ±©µøµÄÏÖÏó£¬Èç±í1Ëùʾ£¬¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·Êг¡¡¢ÄÜÔ´Êг¡ºÍ½ðÊôÊг¡ÔÚ½ü¼¸ÈÕÆÕµø¡£

±í1 ¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÏÖ»õ¼°ÆÚ»õÊг¡±íÏÖÇé¿ö

Æäʵº£Íâ¹ÉÊкÍÉÌÆ·Êг¡Êܴ죬Ö÷ÒªÔ­Òò±ãÊÇÊг¡Öð½¥ÏàÐŲ¢ÈÏÇåÁËÃÀÁª´¢Ò»Ö±Ç¿µ÷µÄ“¸ßÀûÂÊ״̬»ò½«³ÖÐø½Ï³¤Ê±¼ä”µÄº¬Òå¡£Õâ¶Îʱ¼ä£¬ÃÀÔªÖ¸ÊýºÍÊ®ÄêÆÚÃÀÕ®ÊÕÒæÂʲ»¶ÏÍ»ÆÆÇ°¸ß£¬¶Ô¹ÉƱºÍÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñÐγɴòѹ¡£¹úÄÚ°üÀ¨ÉÌÆ·ÔÚÄڵķçÏÕ×ʲúÄÑÒÔ¶ÀÉÆÆäÉí¡£

ʵ¼ÊÉÏ£¬Ëæ×ÅÃÀÁª´¢¼ÓÏ¢ÖÜÆÚ¿ÉÄÜÒѾ­»ò¼´½«½áÊø£¬È«ÇòÁ÷¶¯ÐÔ¹Õµã»ò½«³öÏÖ£¬ÓÐÀûÓÚ´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñÆóÎȵĺê¹Û»·¾³ÕýÔÚÐγɡ£µ«ÊǼÓÏ¢ÖÜÆÚ½áÊøÓ뽵ϢÖÜÆÚ¿ªÆôµÄ¹ý³ÌÊDz¨Õ۵ġ£ÔÚÄêÄÚ¸ßÀûÂÊ»·¾³»ò½«³ÖÐø£»Á÷¶¯ÐÔ¿ÉÄÜ»á±ß¼Ê¸ÄÉÆ£¬µ«²»×ãÒÔ´Ù³ÉÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñÐγÉÇ÷ÊÆÐÔ·´µ¯£»´ËÍ⣬º£Íâ¸ßÀûÂʽ«¼ÌÐø³¸Öâ¹úÄÚÕþ²ß¿íËɵķù¶ÈºÍ½Ú×࣬ѹÖƹúÄÚ×ʲúÅäÖõķçÏÕÆ«ºÃ¡£ÕâÒ»ÌØÕ÷ÔÚ½üÆÚ½«»á±íÏÖµÃÓÈΪÃ÷ÏÔ¡£

Ͷ×ÊÕßÃǹØ×¢¹ú¼ÊÆÚ»õÊг¡£¬Ö÷ÒªÊÇÒòΪ¸ù¾ÝÀúÊ·¾­ÑéÅжϣ¬¹úÄÚÆÚ»õÊг¡µÄÕǵøÇé¿öÔڽϴó³Ì¶ÈÉÏÊܹú¼ÊÆÚ»õÊг¡µÄÓ°Ïì¡£´óÁ¿ÊµÖ¤Ñо¿±íÃ÷£¬¹ú¼ÊÆÚ»õÊг¡¶Ô¹úÄÚÆÚ»õÊг¡È·Êµ´æÔڽϴóµÄÓ°Ïì¡£¾ßÌå¶øÑÔ£¬¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õÊг¡¶Ô¹úÄÚ´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õ¼°ÏÖ»õÊг¡¾ù¾ßÓнϴóµÄÓ°Ï죬µ«ÊǹúÄÚ´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õÊг¡¶Ô¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õÊг¡µÄÓ°Ïì½ÏС£¬ÕâÖÖÏÖÏó±»³Æ֮Ϊ——¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õÊг¡¶Ô¹úÄÚ´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õºÍÏÖ»õÊг¡¾ù´æÔÚµ¥ÏòÒç³öЧӦ¡£

ÓÉÓÚÔ­ÓÍ¡¢¹ó½ðÊôºÍ¸ÖÌú¶¼¼È¾ßÓÐÉÌÆ·ÊôÐÔ£¬ÓÖ¾ßÓнðÈÚÊôÐÔ£¬ÇÒ½ðÈÚÊôÐԽϸߣ¬Êܵ½Íⲿºê¹Û»·¾³µÄÓ°ÏìµÄ³Ì¶ÈºÍ·½Ïò´óÖÂÏàͬ¡£ÓÐÎÄÏ׶ÔÍ­¡¢ÂÁ¡¢Ð¿ºÍÂÝÎƸÖËÄÖؽðÊôºÍÔ­Óͼ۸ñÖ®¼äµÄ¹Øϵ½øÐÐʵ֤Ñо¿·¢ÏÖ£¬ËÄÖÖ²»Í¬ÊôÐÔ¼Û¸ñÓë¹ú¼ÊÔ­ÓÍÆÚ»õ¼Û¸ñµÄÏà¹ØϵÊý¶¼ÏÔÖø¡£Èçͼ1Ëùʾ£¬´Ó2000ÄêÖÁ2021Ä꣬ÂÝÎƸÖÊÕÒæÂÊÓë¹ú¼ÊÔ­ÓÍÊÕÒæÂÊÖ®¼äµÄÏà¹ØϵÊýһֱά³ÖÔÚÒ»¸öÎȶ¨µÄÇø¼ä£¬¶øÇÒµ±ÖØ´ó¼Û¸ñʼþ·¢Éúʱ£¬Á½ÕßµÄÏà¹ØϵÊý´ïµ½ÁËÒ»¸ö·åÖµ¡£Òò´Ë£¬ÎÒÃÇÈÏΪԭÓͼ۸ñÉÏÕǸø¸Ö¼Û´øÀ´ÁËÓÐÁ¦Ö§³Å£¬µ«¹úÇì¼ÙÆÚÆÚ¼äÔ­Óͼ۸ñµÄ±©µøÈÃÀû¶à¸Ö¼ÛµÄÒòËØÔÝʱÏûʧ¡£Ïà·´£¬¹úÇìÆÚ¼ä¹ú¼ÊÔ­Óͼ۸ñµÄϵø£¬»òµ¼Ö¹úÄÚ´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õÊг¡Ò²Ïµø£¬Àû¿Õ¸Ö¼ÛµÄÒòËØÖèÔö¡£Í¬Ê±£¬½÷·ÀÓÉÓÚÍ»·¢²»Îȶ¨Ê¼þ³öÏÖ£¬µ¼ÖÂÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñ±©µø¡£

ͼ1£º¹ú¼ÊÔ­ÓÍÓë¹úÄÚÖ÷Òª½ðÊôÆÚ»õµÄÌõ¼þ¶¯Ì¬ÏµÊý

£¨ÒÀ´ÎÊÇ£ºÍ­¡¢ÂÁ¡¢Ð¿¡¢ÂÝÎƸ֣©

×¢£ºÍ¼ÖÐϵÊýΪʹÓÃDCCÄ£ÐͼÆËãµÄ¸ßƵÊý¾ÝÏà¹ØϵÊý£¬·ÇÆÕͨµÄÏà¹ØϵÊý¡£

µ«ÊÇ£¬ÎÒÃDZØÐëÖ¸³ö£¬Ç°ÆÚÉÌÆ·¹²Õñ×ßÇ¿µÄÏÖÏóÐèÒª¼ÌÐø±»¹Ø×¢¡£´Ó5Ôµ×ÒÔÀ´£¬¸÷´óÀàÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñ³öÏÖ¹²Õñ×ßÇ¿µÄÏÖÏó£¬ÌرðÊÇÄÜÔ´°å¿é£¬½üÆÚÔ­ÓÍΪ´ú±íµÄÄÜÔ´ÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñ×ßÇ¿Ç÷ÊÆÃ÷ÏÔ¡£ÕâÔÚÒ»¶¨³Ì¶ÈÉÏ°µº¬×ÅÖйú¾­¼Ã̽µ×ÆóÎȵÄÔ¤ÆÚ¡£´Ó³¤ÆÚµÄÀúÊ·Êý¾ÝÀ´¿´£¬Çý¶¯´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñ²¨¶¯µÄÈ«ÇòÐÔÒòËØÊǵ¥Ò»µÄ£¬ÓÈÆäÊÇÇý¶¯Ô­ÓÍÓëÆäËû°å¿éµÄÉÌÆ·¹²Õñ£¬80%µÄÔ­Òò¿ÉÒÔ¹é½áΪÐèÇó£¨Ô¤ÆÚ£©Çý¶¯£¬¹©¸øÒòËØÊÇ´ÎÒªµÄ¡£½üÆÚɳÌØÒòÕþÖÎÔ­Òò¶ø¼Æ»®Ôö²ú£¬¿ÉÄÜȷʵÊǵ¼ÖÂÔ­Óͼ۸ñϵøµÄÖØÒªÔ­Òò¡£¶øÃÀÁª´¢Á÷¶¯ÐÔÒòËزÅÊÇÒýÆð±¾´ÎÔ­Ó͵ÈÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñÖèµøµÄÖ÷Òò£¬Õâ¿É¹éΪÐèÇó²àÒòËØ¡£¿ÉÊÇ£¬ÃÀÁª´¢¼ÓÏ¢Ô¤ÆÚ×ÜÓе­»¯µÄʱºò£¬Êг¡ÓֻύÒ×ʲôÄØ£¿ÎÒÃÇÐèÒª¹Ø×¢ÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñ¹²Õñ×ßÇ¿ÊÇ·ñÒѾ­ÍêÈ«½áÊø£¬ÌرðÊÇÔ­Óͼ۸ñÊÇ·ñ»áÔÚ½üÆÚÖ¹µø¡£ÈôÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñ¹²Õñ×ßÇ¿±»´ò¶ÏÖ»ÊÇÔÝʱµÄ£¬½áºÏÀúÊ·¾­Ñé——ÔÚ´óÀàÉÌÆ·ÖУ¬ºÚÉ«½ðÊô¼Û¸ñºÍÄÜÔ´¼Û¸ñÏà¹ØÐÔ½ÏÇ¿£¬¼´Ê¹“Íú¼¾”±»Ö¤Î±£¬ºÚɫϵ¼Û¸ñÊÜÆäËû°å¿é¹²ÕñÓ°Ï죬Ԥ¼Æµø·ùÒ²½«ÓÐÏÞ¡£

ͼ2£ºÇý¶¯ÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñµÄÈý¸öÖ÷ÒªÒòËØ£ºÈ«¾ÖÒòËØ¡¢ÉÌÆ·°å¿éÒòËغÍÆ·ÖÖÒìÖÊÐÔÒòËØ

×¢£ºÎÄÖв¿·Öͼ±íÖ÷ÒªÀ´Ô´ÓÚ¡¶ÖйúÓë¹ú¼Ê´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·Êг¡¼Û¸ñÖ®¼äµÄ¹ØÁªÐÔÑо¿¡·¡¢¡¶¹úÄÚÍâ´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·Êг¡¼äÐÅÏ¢Òç³öЧӦµÄʵ֤Ñо¿——»ùÓÚDAG·½·¨ÓëÒç³öÖ¸ÊýÄ£ÐÍ¡·¡¢¡¶¹ú¼ÊÔ­ÓͶÔÖйú´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·ÆÚ»õµÄ·çÏÕ´«µ¼Ð§Ó¦Ñо¿¡·ºÍ¡¶Common Factors of Commodity Prices¡·µÈ¡£

                                                                                             ×÷ÕߣºÉϺ£¸ÖÁª Ñо¿Ô± ÁõÈå

ÉϺ£¸ÖÁª Ñо¿Ô± Àîˬ ¾­¼Ãѧ²©Ê¿