OPECÓëÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓÍÖ®Õù£¬Öж«³åÍ»¡¢ì«·ç¡¢ÊäÓ͹ܵÀ±»Õ¨£¬¾­Àú·²´ËÖÖÖÖµÄÓͼۼÌÐø´Ó¶þÈýÊ®ÄêÀ´×îÑÏÖصıÀÅÌÖз´µ¯£¬2017ÄêÁ¬ÐøµÚ¶þÄêÒÔÈ«ÄêÉÏÕÇÊÕ¹Ù¡£ÃÀÓÍÄê¶È±©ÕÇÓâ11%£¬±¨60.10ÃÀÔª/Í°£»²¼ÓÍÄê¶È±©ÕÇÓâ17%£¬±¨66.62ÃÀÔª/Í°¡£

2017Ä꣬OPECÓë¶íÂÞ˹µÈÃËÓѵļõ²ú»º½âÁËÈ«ÇòÔ­Ó͹©Ó¦¹ýÊ£µÄ¾ÖÃ棬Íƶ¯ÓͼÛÉÏÕÇ¡£´ËÍ⣬Öж«µØÔµÕþÖξÖÊƽôÕÅ£¬ÒÔ¼°±±º£¡¢¼ÓÄôó¡¢Àû±ÈÑǵȵØÓ͹ÜÖжÏÒ²¶ÔÓͼÛÆðµ½ÁËÍƲ¨ÖúÀ½µÄ×÷Óá£ËäÈ»2017ÄêÄê³õ£¬Êг¡Ò»¶È»³ÒÉOPEC¼õ²úÖ´ÐÐÂʲ¢¼áÐÅÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓÍÔö²ú£¬¼ÓÉÏ9ÔÂì«·ç¶ÔÃÀ¹úÁ¶Óͳ§Í£²úµÄ´òѹ£¬µ«ÈÔ²»×ãÒÔѹµÍÓͼ۵ÄÕÇÊÆ¡£

2017ÄêµÄÔ­ÓÍÐèÇóÒ»Ö±ÔÚ×߸ߣ¬¶ø¹©¸øÔö·ùÔòÏà¶Ô»ºÂý£¬ÑÇÌ«Ïû»¯ÁËÃÀ¹úÔö²úµÄÔ­ÓÍ¡£ËäÈ»ÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓͲúÁ¿×Ô2016ÄêÄêÖÐÒÔÀ´ÒѾ­Ôö¼ÓÓâ16%£¬µ«OPEC¼õ²úÈÔЧÁ¦Ê®×㣬ÁÙ½üÄêĩʱ¹©Ðè»ù±¾ÒÑʵÏÖƽºâ¡£ÓÉÓÚ2017Ä깩¸øÇ÷ÓÚƽºâµì¶¨ÁËÁ¼ºÃµÄ»ù´¡£¬Êг¡ÆÕ±é²Â²âÓͼÛ2018ÄêÉÏÕǸÅÂʽϸߡ£

2018ÄêÓ°ÏìÓÍÊеÄÖ÷ÒªÒòËØ

¼õ²úЭÒé

´Ó¹©¸ø·½Ãæ¿´£¬OPECºÍ·ÇOPECµÄ¼õ²úЭÒéÒѾ­ÑÓ³¤ÖÁ2018Äêµ×£¬³ÉÔ±¹úµÄ¼õ²úÖ´ÐÐÂÊÒÀÈ»¸ßÆó¡£Öж«Ö÷Òª²úÓÍ´ó¹úɳÌؽüÆÚ»¹ÔÚÏòÍâ½ç°µÊ¾£¬»á½«É³ÌØ°¢À­²®¹ú¼ÒʯÓ͹«Ë¾²¿·Ö˽Óл¯£¬²¢Ô¤¼ÆÔÚ2018Äê½øÐÐIPO¡£Èç¹ûÕâÑùµÄ»°£¬Ô¤¼ÆɳÌØ2018Ä꽫·Ç³£»ý¼«µØÍƶ¯ÓͼÛÉÏÕÇ¡£

²»¹ý£¬ÓзÖÎöÈÏΪ£¬É³ÌØÆäʵҲÃæÁÙÁ½ÄѵÄÑ¡Ôñ£¬Æä¼ÈÏ£ÍûÍƸßÓͼÛÂú×ãÕþ¸®µÄ²ÆÕþÐèÇ󣬵«Ò²²»Ï£ÍûÓͼ۹ý¸ß´Ì¼¤ÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓÍÉú²ú£¬´Ó¶øʧȥ¹ý¶àµÄÊг¡·Ý¶î¡£ÓзÖÎöÈËÊ¿Ö¸³ö£¬¼õ²úЭÒé×îÖÕ¿ÉÄÜÎÞ·¨ÑÓ³¤ÖÁ2018ÄêÄêµ×,´æÔÚÖжϵĿÉÄÜÐÔ¡£Ò»µ©¼õ²ú¹úÈÏΪÓͼÛÉÏÕÇÕýÔÚÒÔÆä×ÔÉíΪ´ú¼Û°ïÖúÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓͳ§ÉÌ»ñÀû,ËûÃǾͺÜÓпÉÄÜÌáÇ°½áÊø¼õ²úЭÒé¡£½ìʱ£¬OPECÑ¡ÔñºÎÖÖÍ˳ö»úÖÆ£¬ÄÜ·ñÎÈÍ×µØÖð²½È¡ÏûÉú²úÏÞÖÆ£¬Ò²½«³ÉΪ2018ÄêµÄÖØÒª¿´µã¡£

´ËÍ⣬Ëæ×ÅÓͼÛÊܵ½¼õ²úЭÒéµÄÌáÕñ³öÏÖÉÏÕÇ£¬¸÷²úÓ͹úµÄÕæʵ¼õ²úÖ´ÐÐÂÊÕýÔÚÔâÊÜÖÊÒÉ¡£Ê¢±¦ÒøÐÐ12ÔÂ26ÈÕ¾¯¸æ³Æ£¬2018Äê6ÔÂÇ°£¬OPEC³ÉÔ±¾Í¿ÉÄÜÊܲ»ÁËÓͼÛ×߸ߵÄÓÕ»óÔÚ¼õ²úÖÐ×÷±×£¬´Ó¶øµ¼Ö¼õ²úЭÒéÆÆÁÑ¡£¼õ²úЭÒéµÄ¸ù»ùÒÀ¾É²»ÎÈ£¬Èç¹û¶íÂÞ˹µÈ¹úÌáÇ°Í˳ö¼õ²úͬÃË£¬ÄÇôÓÍÊÐÐÅÐÄÒ²»áÔâÓöÖØ´ì¡£?

Êг¡»¹×¢Òâµ½£¬²¢·ÇËùÓвúÓ͹ú¶¼Êܵ½¼õ²úЭÒéµÄÔ¼Êø¡£Êг¡·ÖÎöʦԤ¼Æ£¬Àû±ÈÑǺÍÄáÈÕÀûÑÇÔ­ÓͲúÁ¿ÓÐÍûÔÚµ±Ç°»ù´¡ÉÏÔö¼Ó10-20%¡£Óë´Ëͬʱ£¬¼ÓÄôóÔ­Ó͹©Ó¦Ò²½«ÉÏÉý¡£´ËÍ⣬°ÍÎ÷µÄÔ­ÓͲúÁ¿Ò²´æÔÚ´ó·ùÔö¼ÓµÄ¿ÉÄÜÐÔ¡£

ÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓͲúÁ¿

¼õ²úЭÒéΪÓͼÛÌṩÁËÖ§³Å£¬µ«Í¬Ê±Ò²Ê¹ÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓͲúÒµ¸´ËÕ¡£Êг¡Ô¤¼ÆÓͼÛÉÏÕÇ»á´Ì¼¤ÃÀ¹úʯÓÍÉú²úÉÌΪÁËËø¶¨Î´À´ÊÕÈë½øÐÐÐÂÒ»ÂÖµÄ×ê¾®³±£¬´Ó¶øµ¼ÖÂ2018ÄêÃÀ¹úµÄÔ­ÓͲúÁ¿´ïµ½´´¼Í¼µÄˮƽ¡£

¹ú¼ÊÄÜÔ´»ú¹¹(IEA)¾¯¸æ³Æ£¬ÃÀ¹úDZÔÚµÄÒ³ÑÒÓͲúÁ¿½«»á¹Ï·ÖÊг¡·Ý¶î¡£2018ÄêÉÏ°ëÄ꣬ԭÓÍ¿â´æ½«»Ö¸´Ôö³¤£¬½«ÔٴζÔÓͼÛÔì³ÉÍþв¡£ÔÚÕâÖÖÇé¿öÏ£¬OPEC½«Å¬Á¦Æ½ºâÊг¡£¬²¢¿ÉÄܱ»ÆÈÔÙ´ÎÑÓ³¤¼õ²úЭÒé¡£?

¶Ô³å»ù½ðMatildaCapitalManagement´´Ê¼È˸¥À­Í¬(RichardFullarton)±íʾ£¬2018ÄêÉÏ°ëÄêÓÍÊеĽ¹µã½«ÊÇÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓͲúÁ¿£¬Õ⽫×óÓÒOPECÊÇ·ñ½øÒ»²½ÑÓ³¤¼õ²úЭÒé¡£ÃÀ¹ú¾­¼Ã×Éѯ¹«Ë¾LongviewEconomicsµÄ×ÊÉî¾­¼Ãѧ¼Ò¿Æ¶ûÎÄ(HarryColvin)³Æ£¬µ±Ç°Êг¡ÕùÂ۵Ľ¹µãΪ2018ÄêÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓÍÊÇ·ñ»á·ÅÂý²úÓÍËٶȡ£ÔÚÓͼÛÖð²½·´µ¯ºó£¬½ü¼¸¸öÔÂÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓÍÉú²úÉÌÒÔѸÀײ»¼°ÑÚ¶úÖ®ÊÆ¿ìËÙÔö²ú£¬ÁîÊг¡´ó¸ÐÒâÍâ¡£

2017Äê12Ô£¬?EIA¡¢OPEC¡¢IEA·¢²¼µÄÔ­ÓÍÊг¡Ô¶ȱ¨¸æ¾ùÌáÉýÁË2018ÄêÔ­ÓÍÔö³¤µÄÔ¤ÆÚ£¬Í¬Ê±Ïµ÷ÁËÐèÇóÔöËÙµÄÔ¤ÆÚ£¬ÕâÁîÊг¡¶ÔÃÀ¹ú²úÁ¿µÄÔö¼Ó¿ÉÄÜ»á²ÏʳOPEC¼õ²ú³É¹ûµÄµ£ÓÇÉýΡ£ÃÀ¹úÄÜÔ´ÐÅÏ¢Êð(EIA)Ô¤¼Æ£¬2018ÄêÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓͲúÁ¿½«³¬¹ý1000ÍòÍ°/ÈÕ¡£¹ú¼ÊÄÜÔ´Êð(IEA)Ò²Ô¤¼Æ2018Äê·ÇOPEC¹ú¼ÒµÄÔ­Ó͹©Ó¦½«Ôö³¤20ÍòÍ°/ÈÕ£¬²¢ÇÒ½«³¬¹ý2018ÄêÈ«ÇòʯÓÍÏûºÄÁ¿¡£

ÃÀ¹úÔ­Óͳö¿Ú´´¼Í¼Ð¸ßÒ²ÔÚ±íÃ÷£¬ÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓͲúÉÌÕýÔÚ½øÒ»²½ÇÀÕ¼Êг¡·Ý¶î¡£Óб¨µÀ³Æ£¬Êµ¼ÊÉÏ´Ó2016Ä꿪ʼ£¬ÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÔ­³§ÉÌÒѾ­¶à´Î³É¹¦¿ªÍØÑÇÖÞÊг¡£¬Öж«²úÓ͹úÏÞÖƲúÁ¿¸øÃÀ¹úʯÓͲúÒµÌî²¹¹©¸ø¿ÕȱÌṩÁËÁ¼»ú¡£´ËÍ⣬ÌØÀÊÆÕÐû²¼ÃÀ¹úÍ˳ö°ÍÀèЭ¶¨ÁîÊг¡µ£ÐÄ£¬ÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓÍÉú²ú¿ÉÄܱÈÄ¿Ç°Ë®×¼¸ü¿ìÔö³¤¡£

Ëæ×ÅÓͼÛÖð²½ÉÏÕÇ£¬ÃÀ¹ú2018ÄêÒ³ÑÒÓͲúÁ¿µÄÔö¼Ó½«ÔÚ¼«´ó³Ì¶ÈÉÏ´òѹÓͼۡ£²»¹ý×îеÄÊý¾ÝÏÔʾ£¬ÃÀ¹úµÄ×ê¾®×ÜÊýºÍʯÓÍ¿â´æÒѾ­³öÏÖÏ»¬¡£ÓÍ·þ±´¿ËÐÝ˹¹«²¼µÄÊý¾ÝÏÔʾ£¬ÃÀ¹ú½ØÖÁ12ÔÂ29ÈÕµ±ÖÜ×ê¾®×ÜÊý¼õÉÙ2¿Ú£¬ÆäÖÐÌìÈ»Æø×ê¾®Êý¼õÉÙ2¿Ú£¬Ê¯ÓÍ×ê¾®Êýά³Ö²»±ä¡£ÃÀ¹úÄÜÔ´ÐÅÏ¢Êð(EIA)¹«²¼µÄÊý¾ÝÏÔʾ£¬ÃÀ¹ú½ØÖÁ12ÔÂ22ÈÕµ±ÖÜEIAÔ­ÓÍ¿â´æϽµ460.9ÍòÍ°£¬Ô¤ÆÚϽµ384.42ÍòÍ°£¬Ç°ÖµÏ½µ649.5ÍòÍ°¡£EIAÊý¾Ý»¹ÏÔʾ£¬ÉÏÖÜÃÀ¹úʯÓͲúÁ¿½µÖÁ975.4ÍòÍ°/ÈÕ£¬´ËÇ°Ò»ÖÜΪ978.9ÍòÍ°/ÈÕ¡£ÃÀ¹úʯÓÍѧ»á(API)¹«²¼Êý¾ÝÏÔʾ£¬ÃÀ¹ú½ØÖÁ12ÔÂ22ÈÕµ±ÖÜAPIÔ­ÓÍ¿â´æ¼õÉÙ600ÍòÍ°£¬Ô¤ÆÚ¼õÉÙ392.5ÍòÍ°¡£

´ËÍ⣬Óб¨µÀ³Æ£¬2017Äêз¢ÏÖÔ­ÓÍ´¢Á¿´´Ðµ͡£Å²Íþ¶ÀÁ¢×Éѯ»ú¹¹“À×˹ËþÄÜÔ´¹«Ë¾”(RystadEnergy)·¢²¼Êý¾Ý³Æ£¬2017ÄêÈ«Çòз¢ÏÖÔ­ÓÍ´¢Á¿½ö67ÒÚÍ°£¬Îª70¶àÄêÀ´×îµÍˮƽ¡£×¨¼ÒÈÏΪ£¬×îÁîDZÔÚÏû·ÑÕß²»°²µÄÊÇ£¬·¢ÏÖµÄʯÓÍ¿ó´²´¢Á¿½ö¿ÉÃÖ²¹2017Ä꿪²ÉÁ¿µÄ11%£¬¶ø2012ÄêÕâÒ»±ÈÀý³¬¹ý50%¡£

Óɴ˿ɼû£¬2018ÄêÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓÍÊÇ·ñÒ»¶¨Ôö²ú»¹ÊÇδ֪Êý¡£²»¹ýºÁÎÞÒÉÎʵÄÒ»µãÊÇ£¬ÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓÍÔö³¤ÒÀÈ»ÊÇ×è°­´«Í³²úÓ͹ú¼¯Ìå¼õ²úÈ¡µÃÔ¤ÆÚ³ÉЧµÄ×î´óÀ¹Â·»¢¡£?

µØÔµ¾ÖÊÆ

ÕþÖξÖÊƽ«Ó°Ïì2018ÄêÈ«ÇòµÄÔ­ÓͲúÁ¿£¬´Ó¶øÓ°ÏìÓͼÛ×ßÊÆ¡£PVMʯÓÍÁªºÏ¹«Ë¾µÄ·ÖÎöʦ²¼À¼Åµ¿Ë(Stephen?Brennock)¾ÍÃ÷È·Ö¸³ö£¬2018ÄêÒ»¼¾¶ÈÖ÷µ¼Óͼ۵ÄÒòËؽ«ÎªµØÔµ¾ÖÊÆ¡£

»Ø¹Ë2017ÄêµÄÖж«£¬É³ÌØÄÚÍâ·×ÕùËÄÆ𣬹úÄÚͻȻÖØÈ­·´¸¯£¬¹úÍâÓëÀè°ÍÄÛ¡¢Ò²ÃÅÒÔ¼°ÒÁÀÊ·×Õù²»¶Ï¡£ÉÔÔç֮ǰ£¬ÒÁÀ­¿Ë¿â¶ûµÂÈ˶ÀÁ¢·ç²¨£¬¼ÓÉÏÃÀ¹ú¿ÖÏ®ÐðÀûÑǵÈʼþ£¬Öж«¾ÖÊƶ¯µ´²»°²£¬ÈÃÊг¡²»µÃ²»¶ÔÖж«Ô­Ó͹©¸øµÄÎȶ¨ÐԸе½µ£ÓÇ£¬´Ó¶øÖ§³ÅÓͼÛÇ¿ÊÆÔËÐС£

´Ó¶ÌÆÚÀ´¿´£¬Öж«²úÓÍ´ó¹úɳÌؾÖÊƵĶ¯µ´£¬¿ÉÄܵ¼ÖÂÔ­ÓÍÉú²úºÍ³ö¿ÚÔâÊÜÓ°Ï죻ÖÐÆÚÀ´Ëµ£¬ÈôɳÌØÕþ¾Ö²»ÎÈ£¬½«×è°­Íâ×ÊÔÚɳÌؽøÐÐÔ­ÓͲúҵͶ×Ê£»³¤ÆÚÀ´Ëµ£¬É³ÌØ·´¸¯Ö¼ÔÚ¹®¹ÌÍõ´¢Äº±Ä¬µÂ·±¾·ÈøÀÕÂü(MohammedbinSalman)µÄµØ룬ÒÔ±ã½øÐГ2030о­¼Ã¼Æ»®”¸Ä¸ï£¬°ÚÍѶÔÔ­Óͳö¿ÚµÄÒÀÀµ¡£ÈýÕßÎÞÂÛÄÄÒ»¸ö£¬¶¼¿ÉÄÜ´òѹԭÓ͹©¸ø£¬ÀûºÃÓͼۡ£

´ËÍ⣬»¹ÓкܶàDZÔڵĵØÔµµ¼»ðË÷£¬¿ÉÄܵ¼ÖÂ2018ÄêʯÓ͹©Ó¦Öжϡ£ÀýÈçÇ°¶Îʱ¼äFortiesʯÓ͹ܵÀÆÆÁѲ¢¹Ø±Õ£¬¹ÜµÀÔËÓªÉÌÐû²¼Ê¯ÓÍÔËÊäÓöµ½²»¿É¿¹Á¦£¬´Ó¶øµ¼Ö±±º£ÓÍÌï¹Ø±Õ¡£12ÔÂ26ÈÕ£¬Îä×°×é֯Ϯ»÷ÁËÀû±ÈÑÇÁ¥ÊôWAHAÔ­Ó͹«Ë¾ÊäÍùES?SIDERÓ͸۵ÄÔ­Ó͹ܵÀ£¬µ¼Ö¸ÃÓ͹ܱ¬Õ¨ÁîÀû±ÈÑÇËðʧ´óÔ¼9ÍòÍ°/ÈÕµÄÔ­Ó͹©Ó¦¡£

ίÄÚÈðÀ­¹úÄÚ¾ÖÊÆÒ²Òý·¢¹Ø×¢£¬¸Ã¹úÕý¾­Àú¶ñÐÔͨÕͺ;­¼ÃË¥ÍË£¬ÆäÔ­ÓͲúÁ¿ÕýÔÚ¼ÓËÙÏ»¬£¬ÕâÒ»ÏûÏ¢¶ÔÓÍÊÐÀ´ËµÓÐÒ»¶¨µÄÌáÕñ×÷Óá£ÄáÈÕÀûÑǵÄÕþ¾ÖÒ²²»Îȶ¨£¬»¹³öÏÖÁËʯÓ͹¤ÈË°Õ¹¤µÄÍ»·¢Çé¿ö£¬2018ÄêÒ²¿ÉÄܳöÏÖÔ­Ó͹©Ó¦ÖжϵÄÇé¿ö¡£

Ô­ÓÍÐèÇó

È«ÇòÔ­ÓÍÐèÇóÕýÔÚÔö¼Ó£¬ÖÐÃÀÓ¡µÈÈ«Çò×î´óÔ­ÓÍÏû·Ñ¹úµÄÐèÇóÔö³¤ÓÈΪÏÔ×Å¡£

·ÖÎöʦָ³ö£¬2017Äê´óÁ¿µÄÔ­ÓÍÁ÷ÏòÁËÑÇÖÞ£¬ÒÔÂú×ã¸ÃµØÇøÍúÊ¢µÄÐèÇó£¬ÑÇÖÞÐèÇóÔö³¤Æðµ½Á˶ÔÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓÍÔö²úµÄÏû»¯×÷Ó᣾ÝϤ£¬Öйú11ÔÂÔ­Óͽø¿ÚÁ¿´ïµ½901ÍòÍ°/ÈÕ£¬Îª¼Í¼µÚ¶þ¸ßˮƽ¡£Óб¨µÀ³Æ£¬Öйú½«ÔÚ2018ÄêÏò44¼Ò¹«Ë¾·¢·Å1.2132ÒÚ¶ÖÔ­Óͽø¿ÚÅä¶î£¬Öйú¶ÔÔ­Ó͵Ľø¿Ú½«»áÔÙ´´Ð¸ߡ£Í¬Ê±ÓÉÓÚ²úÄܵÄÔö¼Ó£¬Öйú½«¸øÓèÁ¶Óͳ§¸ü¶àµÄ×ÔÖ÷Ȩ½ø¿ÚÔ­ÓÍ£¬ÔÚÈ«Çò¹©Ðè¶ÌʱʧºâµÄÇé¿öÏ£¬Õ⽫¶ÔÌáÕñÈ«ÇòµÄÓͼÛÆ𵽷dz£»ý¼«µÄ×÷Óá£

°ÍµÇ·ûÌÚ±¤ÖÝÒøÐÐ(LBBW)´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·Ñо¿Ö÷¹Ü˹¼Î²®¸ñ(FrankSchallenberger)³Æ£¬È«Çò¾­¼ÃÔö³¤Ç¿¾¢£¬2017ÄêʯÓÍÐèÇó¸ßÆ󣬶ø2018Äê¸ÃÇ÷Êƽ«ÑÓÐø¡£ÓÉÓÚOPEC¸ß¶È×ñÊؼõ²ú³Ðŵ£¬¹©Ó¦Ôò½«Ïà¶Ô½ôÕÅ¡£¿ÆÍþÌØÐÂÈÎʯÓͲ¿³¤Ô¤¼Æ£¬2018ÄêʯÓÍÐèÇ󽫱£³Ö“½¡¿µ”Ôö³¤£¬Ô¤¼ÆÏû·ÑÁ¿½«Ôö¼Ó150ÍòÍ°/ÈÕ¡£

ÒÁÀ­¿ËʯÓͲ¿³¤¼Ö°Í¶û(JabbarAl-Luaibi)ÔÚ12ÔÂ25ÈÕ±íʾ£¬ÒòΪȫÇòʯÓÍ¿â´æϽµ£¬¶øÖйúºÍÓ¡¶ÈµÄʯÓÍÐèÇóÈÔÔÚÉÏÉý£¬Ëû¶Ô2018ÄêµÄÓͼÛÉÏÕǵÄÔ¤ÆÚ±íʾÀÖ¹Û¡£¹ú¼ÊÄÜÔ´ÊðÔ¤¼Æ£¬2018ÄêÈ«ÇòÔ­ÓÍÐèÇó²úÁ¿½«¼ÌÐøκÍÔö³¤£¬±È2017ÄêÔö¼Ó128ÍòÍ°/ÈÕ£¬Ôö·ù¿ÉÄÜ´ïµ½1.3%¡£

²»¹ý£¬¸ßÊ¢µÈ·ÖÎö»ú¹¹Ô¤¼Æ£¬2018ÄêÔ­ÓÍÐèÇóÔö³¤½«Ö÷Òª±»ÃÀ¹úºÍ¼ÓÄôóµÄ¹©Ó¦Ôö³¤ËùµÖÏû¡£

Ô­ÓÍ¿ª²É¼¼ÊõºÍÐÂÄÜÔ´ÐÐÒµµÄ·¢Õ¹

ÔçÇ°¾ÍÓб¨µÀ³Æ£¬Ä³Ð©Ê¯Ó;ÞÍ·Õýͨ¹ýÀûÓø߶È×Ô¶¯»¯µÄÒ³ÑÒÓÍ×ê¾®Ô¶¶Ë²Ù×÷¼¼ÊõÒÔ¼°ÊýÂë¿Æ¼¼·½ÃæµÄ½ø²½£¬Ï£Íû½øÒ»²½Ìá¸ß²úÓÍЧÂÊ¡£±ÈÈ磬ÃÀ¹ú×î´óµÄ¶ÀÁ¢ÓÍÆø¿ª²ÉÉÌ¿µ·ÆʯÓ͹ú¼Ê(ConocoPhillips)Ò²¿ªÊ¼²ÉÓúͿÇÅÆÀàËƵÄÔ¶¶Ë¿ØÖÆ¿ª²É¼¼Êõ½øÐÐʯÓÍ×÷Òµ¡£

Òò´Ëͬʱ£¬ÐÂÄÜÔ´ÐÐÒµÒ²ÔÚÖð½¥áÈÆð£¬ÌرðÊÇÐÂÄÜÔ´Æû³µµÄ·¢Õ¹±»Æձ鿴ºÃ¡£±ÈÈ磬?IHS?Markit¹«Ë¾¸±¶­Ê³¤¼æÌØÀÊÆÕÄÜÔ´Õ½ÂÔ¹ËÎʵ¤Äá¶û·Ò®½ð(Daniel?Yergin)¾ÍÔ¤²â£¬?2040ÄêÐÂÄÜÔ´Æû³µÊг¡½«´ïµ½1ÍòÒÚÃÀÔª£¬Öйú½«³ÉΪÐÂÄÜÔ´Æû³µ×î´óµÄÊг¡¡£Ëû»¹±íʾ£¬´ÓÐÂÄÜÔ´Æû³µµÄÖÖÀàÉÏ¿´£¬È¼ÁÏÆû³µµÄ·¢Õ¹½«ÄÑÒÔÓë´¿µç¶¯Æû³µÆ¥µÐ£¬Êг¡¹æÄ£½«Êܵ½Ò»¶¨µÄÏÞÖÆ¡£?

»ú¹¹¶Ô2018ÄêÓͼÛ×ßÊÆÔ¤²â

ʵ¼ÊÉÏ£¬ºÜ¶à»ú¹¹ÒѾ­·ÖÎöÁË2018ÄêÓ°ÏìÓͼ۵ÄÖî¶àÒòËØ£¬¾ÍδÀ´ÓͼÛ×ßÊƸø³öÁ˸÷×ԵĹ۵ã»òÕßÔ¤²â¡£×ÜÌåÉÏ¿´£¬¿´¶à2018ÄêÓͼ۵Ļú¹¹Òª¶àһЩ¡£

¹ÛµãÒ»£ºÊ¯ÓÍÊг¡³öÏÖÔÙƽºâ£¬Óͼ۳öÏÖÉÏÐÐ

¸ßÊ¢£º½«2018Äê²¼Â×ÌØÔ­Óͼ۸ñÔ¤ÆÚ´Ó58ÃÀÔª/Í°Éϵ÷ÖÁ62ÃÀÔª/Í°¡£¸ßÊ¢ÈÏΪ£¬È«ÇòʯÓÍ¿â´æÔ¤¼Æµ½2018ÄêÖÐÆÚʵÏÖÔÙƽºâ£¬´ÙʹOPEC¼°ÆäÃ˹úÖð²½Í˳ö¼õ²ú¼Æ»®¡£µ½2018ÄêÏ°ëÄ꣬Ëæ×ÅOPECºÍ·ÇOPEC²úÓ͹úÌá¸ß²úÁ¿£¬ÓͼۿÉÄÜÃæÁÙÏÂÐзçÏÕ¡£

Ħ¸ù´óͨ£º2018ÄêµÄ²¼Â×ÌØÔ­Óͼ۸ñ´Ó58ÃÀÔª/Í°Éϵ÷ÖÁ60ÃÀÔª/Í°¡£¸ÃÐбíʾ£¬ÓͼÛÈÔ´óÌåÎȶ¨£¬·´Ó³Á˼áʵµÄ»ù±¾ÃæºÍÊÕ½ôµÄƽºâ¡£Ä¦¸ù´óͨʯÓÍÊг¡Ñо¿Ö÷¹ÜµÂ˹Å˵Ç(Abhishek?Deshpande)Ò²±íʾ£º“ÎÒÃÇÔ¤²âÃÀ¹úÔ­Óͽ«´ó·ùÔö²ú£¬µ«ÊÇÈç¹ûÐèÇóÔö³¤²»Ï½µ£¬ÄÇôÊÜOPECÑÓÆÚ¼õ²úÖÁ2018Äêµ×µÄÖ§³Å£¬Ô­ÓÍÊг¡½«ÊµÏÖƽºâ¡£“

ÃÀÒøÃÀÁÖ£ºÓÉÓÚÊг¡Ç÷½ôºÍ·çÏÕÉÏÉý£¬½«2018ÄêµÄ²¼Â×ÌØÔ­Óͼ۸ñ´Ó50ÃÀÔª/Í°Éϵ÷ÖÁ52.50ÃÀÔª/Í°¡£

ÈðÒø£º½«2018ÄêµÄ²¼Â×ÌØÔ­Óͼ۸ñ´Ó55ÃÀÔª/Í°Éϵ÷ÖÁ60ÃÀÔª/Í°£»¾­ºÏ×éÖ¯µÄ¿â´æ¿ÉÄÜ»áÔÚ2018ÄêµÚÈý¼¾¶È½µÖÁÎåÄêƽ¾ùˮƽ£¬½ìʱOPECÁìµ¼µÄÒ»ÖÖ·ÇÕýʽµÄ²úÁ¿Ëõ¼õ½«¿ªÊ¼¡£

ÈðÐÅ£º½«2018ÄêµÄ²¼Â×ÌØÔ­Óͼ۸ñ´Ó53ÃÀÔª/Í°Éϵ÷ÖÁ60ÃÀÔª/Í°¡£¸ÃÐбíʾ£¬OPECºÍÆäËû²úÓ͹ú¶Ô¼õ²úµÄ¼á¶¨³Ðŵ£¬½«µ¼Ö¾­ºÏ×éÖ¯2018ÄêµÚÈý¼¾¶ÈµÄ¿â´æˮƽ“Õý³£»¯”¡£

¼ÓÄôó»Ê¼ÒÒøÐÐ×ʱ¾Êг¡£º´ÓÄ¿Ç°ÏÖÓеÄÊý¾ÝºÍÇé¿öÀ´·ÖÎö£¬2018ÄêÔ­Óͼ۸ñ½«»á¼ÌÐø×߸ߣ¬Ô¤¼ÆÕÇ·ù½«»á·Å»º¡£µ«Èô³öÏÖ¼«¶Ë·çÏÕʼþ£¬Ô­Óͼ۸ñ¿ÉÄÜ»áì­Éý¡£ÁíÒ»·½Ã棬¶àͷͶ×ÊÕßÈÔÐèÒª¾¯ÌèÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓͳ§ÉÌ·´Æ˵¼ÖµIJúÁ¿¼¤Ôö£¬Õâ¿ÉÄÜ»áÓ°ÏìÔ­Ó͵ÄÉÏÕÇÊÆÍ·¡£

Ò°´å֤ȯ£ºÈô2018ÄêÖж«±¬·¢Õ½Õù£¬Óͼ۽«Ö±³å80ÃÀÔª/Í°¡£×îÓпÉÄܳöÏÖ³åÍ»µÄÁ½¸öµØÇøÒ»ÊÇÒ²ÃÅ£¬ÁíÒ»¸öÊÇÀè°ÍÄÛ/°ÍÀÕ˹̹¡£

¹Ûµã¶þ£º¿â´æÔö¼ÓÍâ¼ÓÐèÇó·Å»º£¬2018ÄêÓͼۻò½«ÏÂÐÐ

»¨Æ죺Ŀǰ¿´ÕǵĹ©Ó¦´æÔÚ·çÏÕ£¬ÐèÇó¶¯Á¦½«ÃæÁٿݽߣ¬¶øÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓͲúÁ¿µÄì­Éý¿ÉÄÜ»á¾çÁÒÓ°ÏìÊг¡¡£Ô¤²â2018Äê²¼Â×ÌØÔ­Óͼ۸ñΪ54ÃÀÔª/Í°£»Ä¿Ç°OPECÒýµ¼µÄ²úÁ¿ÏÞÖÆ´ëÊ©½«³ÖÐøµ½2018ÄêÖÐÆÚ»òµÚÈý¼¾¶ÈÄ©£¬µ«²»»áÊÇÄêµ×¡£

°Í¿ËÀ³ÒøÐУºÔ­Óͼ۸ñµÄÉÏÕǽ«¹ÄÀøÃÀ¹úºÍÆäËû·ÇOPEC²úÓ͹úÔÚ2018ÄêÌá¸ß²úÁ¿£¬Õ⽫ʹµÃ¿â´æÔÙ´ÎÔö¼Ó¡£Ä¿Ç°¶ÔÓͼ۵ÄÀÖ¹ÛÇéÐ÷½«¹ÄÀø·ÇOPEC¹ú¼ÒÔÚ2018ÄêºÍ2019ÄêÿÌìÖÁÉÙÔö¼Ó50ÍòÍ°µÄ¹©Ó¦¡£°Í¿ËÀ³¾¯¸æ³Æ£¬2018Äê¹ú¼ÊÔ­ÓÍÆÚ»õ¼Û¸ñ¿Ö´ó·ù»Øµ÷£¬ÓÉÓÚĿǰͶ×ÊÕß½¨Á¢ÁË´óÁ¿¿´¶àÔ­ÓÍÍ·´ç£¬Ò»µ©»ù±¾Ãæ³öÏÖÀû¿ÕÒòËØ£¬¿Öµ¼ÖÂÓÍÊдó·ù»Øµ÷¡£°Í¿ËÀ³±íʾ£¬2018Äêά³Ö¿´µøÁ¢³¡£¬²¼Â×ÌØÔ­ÓÍÆÚ»õ¾ù¼ÛÁϵøÖÁ55ÃÀÔª/Í°¡£

Ñо¿¹«Ë¾IHS?Markit£ºËäÓÐOPEC¼°Ò»Ð©·ÇOPEC¹ú¼ÒÑÓ³¤¼õ²úЭÒéÖÁ2018ÄêÄêµ×µÄ¾ö¶¨£¬µ«È«ÇòÓͼÛÈÔ½«Ïµø¡£ÒòЭÒéÑÓÆÚÔÚÊг¡ÒâÁÏÖ®ÖУ¬²»ÏàÐżõ²úЭÒéµÄÑÓ³¤½«¶ÔÓͼ۲úÉúÉÏÐÐ×÷Óá£ÒòÃÀ¹ú²úÁ¿ÉÏÉýÒÔ¼°±±°ëÇò¶¬¼¾ÐèÇóµÄ·Å»º£¬Ô¤¼Æ2018ÄêÓͼ۽«×ßÈõ£¬»Øµ½ÂÔµÍÓÚ60ÃÀÔª/Í°µÄˮƽ¡£

2018ÄêÓͼۻòÎÈÖп´ÕÇ

×ÜÌå·ÖÎöÀ´¿´£¬µØÔµÕþÖÎÓÇÂÇÖ§³ÅϵÄÓͼÛÉÏÕÇ£¬¸üÏñÊÇÒ»´ÎͶ»úÐÐΪ£¬¿ÉÄܶÔÓͼÛÔì³É¶ÌÆÚÓ°Ï죬²»Ì«¿ÉÄÜÖ§³ÅÓͼۼÌÐøÉÏÕÇ¡£Ð¼¼ÊõºÍÐÂÄÜÔ´µÄ·¢Õ¹×ÜÌ建Âý£¬¾ÍËãÓÐËù½øÕ¹£¬ÏëÒªÆÕ¼°Ò²ÐèҪʱ¼ä£¬Ô¤¼Æ¹©Ð軹ÊÇ×óÓÒ2018ÄêµÄÓͼÛÖ÷ÒªÒòËØ¡£¶øOPECÔÚ¼õ²úЭÒéÉÏ´ï³ÉÒ»ÖºóÊÇ·ñ»á³öÏÖ±äÊý£¬ÒÔ¼°Î´À´Ò³ÑÒÓÍ´ó¹úÃÀ¹úÊÇ·ñ»á½øÈëÊг¡·ÖÏíÒ»±­¸þÔò³ÉΪÁË2018ÄêÓͼÛ×ßÊƵĹؼü¡£

2017Äêµ×¹ú¼ÊÔ­ÓÍÊг¡´ïµ½µÄÕâÖÖ“Èõƽºâ”״̬»¹Ê®·Ö´àÈõ£¬²»½öÐèÒª²úÓ͹ú¼ÌÐøÖ´ÐÐÁªºÏ¼õ²úÀ´Î¬Ïµ£¬»¹ÒªÃæ¶Ô²»²ÎÓë¼õ²úµÄ·ÇOPEC²úÓ͹ú¾Þ´óµÄÔö²úѹÁ¦£¬Ö÷Òª²úÓ͹úÒ»µ©·ÅÆú¼õ²ú»ò¼õ²úÖ´Ðв»¼Ñ£¬»òÊÇÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓͲúÁ¿Ôٶȳ¬Ô¤ÆÚ´ó·ùÔö³¤£¬ÕâÖÖ±¾¾Í²»Îȶ¨µÄƽºâ½«Êܵ½ÆÆ»µ¡£

µ±Óͼ۲»¶Ï»ØÉýʱ£¬ÃÀ¹úÒ³ÑÒÓͲúÉÌÒ²¿ªÊ¼À©´ó×ʱ¾Ö§³ö¡£ÓÈÆäÊÇ×î½üÃÀ¹úÒѾ­Í¨¹ýÁË30ÄêÀ´Ê×´ÎÈ«ÃæË°¸Ä£¬ÏàÐÅËæ×Å×ʱ¾Ö§³öµÄÌáÉý£¬2018ÄêÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓͲúÁ¿»¹½«¼ÌÐøÅÊÉý¡£

´ÓÐèÇó·½Ãæ¿´£¬2018ÄêÈ«Çò¾­¼Ã³öÏÖ´ó·ùË¥Í˵ĿÉÄÜÐԽϵͣ¬Ô­ÓÍÐèÇó´æÔÚÔö³¤µÄ¿ÉÄÜÐÔ¡£²»¹ýÕⲿ·ÖÐÂÔöÐèÇó¿ÉÄܱ»OPECÒÔ¼°ÃÀ¹úÒÔÍâµÄ²úÓ͹ú²úÁ¿Ôö¼ÓËùµÖÏû¡£2018Äê¹ú¼ÒÓÍÊÐÓпÉÄÜÔٶȳöÏÖС·ù¹©Ó¦¹ýÊ£µÄ¾ÖÃæ¡£

×ÜÌå¶øÑÔ£¬2018Äê¹ú¼ÊÔ­ÓÍÊг¡ÊµÏÖÈ«Ã湩Ðèƽºâ»¹ÓкܴóµÄ²»È·¶¨ÐÔ£¬È«ÄêÓͼÛÒÀÈ»»áÓв¨¶¯¡£Èç¹û²úÓ͹ú¶¯µ´µ¼ÖÂÊÀ½çʯÓ͹©Ó¦´ó·ùϽµ¡¢ÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓÍÉú²ú¸´ËÕ·¦Á¦¡¢ÒÁÀÊʯÓͳö¿ÚÖØÐÂÔâÓöÖƲã¬ÔòÈ«Äê¹ú¼ÊÓͼۿÉÄܽøÒ»²½·´µ¯£»Èç¹ûOPEC¼õ²úÖ´ÐÐÂʲ»¼°Ô¤ÆÚ»òÖèÈ»Í˳ö¼õ²ú£¬Í¬Ê±ÃÀ¹úÔ­ÓÍÉú²úÇ¿ÊƸ´ËÕÔòÈ«ÄêÓͼÛˮƽ»ØÉýÊÜÏÞ¡£

×ÛºÏÒÔÉÏ·ÖÎö¿´£¬ÔÚ¶à¿ÕÇéÐ÷½»Ö¯µÄÇé¿öÏ£¬³ý·Ç·¢ÉúÕ½ÕùµÈ¼«¶ËÐÔʼþ£¬2018ÄêÓͼ۳ÖÐø¼±¾çÉÏÕÇ»òÕß±ÀÅ̵ĿÉÄÜÐÔ²»´ó£¬ºÜ¿ÉÄܼÌÐø±£³ÖÈõƽºâµÄ״̬£¬ÎÈÖп´ÕǵĿÉÄÜÐÔÏà¶Ô½Ï¸ß¡£